Against the backdrop of the climate crisis, record temperatures and growing tensions between countries, COP29 in Baku became one of the most challenging conferences under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The main topics were financial commitments, emission reductions, and achieving climate justice for the most vulnerable countries. However, despite the number of expectations, the conference left more questions than answers.
Geopolitical challenges
COP29 took place in a context of geopolitical instability. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as growing tensions between the developed countries, have affected the ability of governments to agree on joint actions. Much of the attention was focused on energy security, shifting the emphasis from transitioning to renewable energy sources to meeting short-term oil and gas needs.
Financial commitments: insufficient progress
The financial target agreed at COP29 caused a lot of controversy. As a result, a minimum amount of $300 billion per year until 2035 was set. Only a limited part of this amount will be provided by the state budgets of developed countries through grants. The remaining funds should come from private investment, loans, and other sources, including bilateral and multilateral financing. This approach concerns developing countries, as grants, which are the least burdensome for their economies, account for only a small share of funding.
This means that loans will continue to be counted as climate finance and private investment. This creates an additional debt burden for less developed countries that already spend a significant portion of their budgets on climate change adaptation. For example, African countries lose up to 5% of their GDP annually due to extreme weather.
Lack of progress in reducing emissions
The Mitigation Work Program has failed. This topic became one of the most sensitive at COP29. Countries with high oil and gas revenues blocked the inclusion of key findings from last year’s Global Stocktake in the draft text, arguing that they were irrelevant to the emissions reduction program. As a result, important provisions such as the transition away from fossil fuels could not be confirmed. By the end of the two weeks, even references to 2023 as the hottest year on record and the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C were removed from the preamble.
This poses a serious threat: without sufficient action to reduce emissions this decade, the 1.5°C goal will be unattainable, and the costs of adaptation, loss and damage will increase with each additional degree of warming.
Adaptation issues
Under the Global Adaptation Goal, new indicators were agreed upon, which previously numbered more than 7,000 but now have been reduced to a maximum of 100. These indicators are intended to be globally applicable and adaptable to national circumstances. Further work will focus on clarifying their content.
An interesting outcome of COP29 was the creation of a high-level Adaptation Dialogue in Baku, which will be held on the sidelines of the next COP. This dialogue aims to find ways to implement the UAE Framework Agreement on Global Climate Resilience. While this may help to raise the priority of adaptation in future negotiations, the effectiveness of this mechanism remains to be seen.
Article 6 and risks
Article 6 of the Paris Agreement sets the international carbon credit market rules. It consists of two key mechanisms: Article 6.2 regulates cooperation between countries through bilateral and multilateral agreements, and Article 6.4 creates a centralized international carbon credit market.
At COP29, most of the rules for these markets were finalized, but significant gaps remain. In particular, there are serious concerns about the effectiveness of verification mechanisms to prevent double counting and excessive sales of credits. If these systems do not work properly, the risk of double counting will become a reality.
In addition, no restrictions have been set on the use of forest offsets that are not permanent. Emissions from fossil fuels that remain in the atmosphere for hundreds of years should not be offset only by natural sinks like forests.
An additional problem was that some Article 6 rules were adopted at the beginning of COP29 without proper discussion to show rapid progress. This sets a precedent for future decisions, which may harm the transparency and quality of climate policy.
What is next
COP29 was another example of how short-term national interests trump long-term global goals. The lack of progress in reducing emissions and the lack of ambitious financing undermine the achievement of climate goals.
As COP30 in Brazil approaches, countries must rethink their commitments. It will be important to submit new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by February 2025, which should meet the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C.
Civil society and countries of the Global South will play a key role in raising the ambition. However, without a significant increase in funding and clear commitments to reduce emissions, the chances of meeting the climate goals remain minimal.
