Climate Action Network of Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia (CAN EECCA), together with the Friedrich Ebert Foundation (FES), published an overview of the current nationally determined contributions (NDCs) of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Moldova.
The article was prepared in collaboration with the Friedrich Ebert Foundation (FES). The opinions expressed may not reflect the position of the Foundation.
Author: Svetlana Mogilyuk, public association “EKOM,” Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan is already experiencing tangible consequences of climate change — rising temperatures, more frequent extreme heat, and the transformation of natural cycles. Against this backdrop, updating the country’s climate commitments becomes a key issue for sustainable development, attracting investments, and fulfilling international agreements. The new stage of NDC 3.0 formulation opens up opportunities for a more ambitious and realistic climate policy, aligned with global requirements and the interests of the national economy.
According to the climate change bulletin prepared annually by Kazhydromet, a steady increase in the average annual air temperature is observed across all regions of Kazakhstan. On average, the increase in average annual air temperature is 0.36 ºC per 10 years. Summers are becoming hotter: heat waves occur more frequently, last longer, and the year overall is characterized by more prolonged periods of heat. Such changes not only affect the human and animal body but also damage roads and worsen living conditions in cities and recreational areas.
The energy sector is also affected: the demand for additional electricity production for building cooling is increasing. The rise in near-surface temperature reduces the period with sub-zero temperatures. Precipitation increasingly falls in liquid form, which affects snow accumulation. In mountainous areas, both the area and the period of solid precipitation decrease, impacting glacier systems. There are, of course, positive effects — less energy is required to heat buildings in the cold period, but at the same time, there are significantly more cases of icy conditions.
The average annual air temperature in Kazakhstan over the last decade (2015–2024) was +6.98 °C, exceeding the climatic norm by 0.70 °C. The last five years (2020–2024) were also the warmest, with an average annual air temperature of +7.35 °C, exceeding the climatic norm by 1.06 °C. In 2023, Kazakhstan recorded a record 1st place in a descending ranking of average annual air temperatures since 1941, and the average annual temperature anomaly (deviation from the long-term average for the period 1961–1990) in 2023 was +2.58 °C.
The importance of aligning Kazakhstan’s climate policy with the Paris Agreement and the Global Stocktake process.
The issue of reducing anthropogenic impact on climate change is very important for Kazakhstan, and the country’s participation in the Paris Agreement is crucial. The main goals of this Agreement are to keep the increase in global average temperature below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900) and to make efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C.
Each Party prepares, communicates, and maintains successive nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that it intends to achieve. An NDC is a document where countries reflect/implement domestic measures to prevent climate change in order to achieve the goals of such contributions. The Paris Agreement also notes that each subsequent NDC of a Party should represent progress and reflect the highest possible ambition.
The NDC has two spheres of influence. Externally, it demonstrates the commitment to achieving specific goals, dedication to change, and the feasibility of mechanisms for achieving these goals at the international level. The result of this influence is political support and the attraction of international investments. External private investment will continue to play an important role in Kazakhstan, but international investors are moving toward sustainable (ESG) investments. Failure to convincingly signal commitment to decarbonization goals will reduce international investors’ interest in Kazakhstan.
Internally, it signals to domestic investors the need for changes, clearly defining the necessary measures and the timeline for their implementation. Having clear goals in the NDC ensures the harmonized development of various elements of the overall system: legislation, infrastructure, and domestic investments. Most domestic private investments in decarbonization will be aimed at replacing old high-carbon equipment with new, low-carbon technologies. Until private investors see requirements for coal reduction measures and methane emission prevention, they are reluctant to invest resources in new technologies with higher emission standards.
Current NDC and the stated goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.
In the NDC, which can be referred to as 2.0, adopted in Kazakhstan in April 2023, the following goals were outlined:
The unconditional target, planned to be achieved solely based on the country’s internal resources, without external assistance, was: a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 15 percent by the end of 2030 compared to the 1990 baseline level.
The conditional target, planned to be achieved with external support from international financing, was: a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 25 percent by the end of 2030, contingent on significant additional international investments and grant support; access to international technology transfer mechanisms; co-financing and participation in international research projects, experimental and design work on promising low-carbon technologies, and initiatives to build local expert capacity.
Main gaps in the current NDC (based on previous assessments)
However, the 2023 NDC has a number of very serious gaps:
1. The document does not indicate how Kazakhstan intends to achieve the 1.5 °C scenario; there are no interim targets for 2035 and no transparent modeling.
Kazakhstan’s commitment to the Paris Agreement goals is expressed through the adoption of a range of documents. The Environmental Code of the Republic of Kazakhstan, adopted in January 2021, contains a whole section “Climate and the Ozone Layer of the Atmosphere,” which outlines mechanisms of state regulation in the field of greenhouse gas emissions and absorptions and state governance in climate change adaptation.
In December 2021, a green taxonomy was adopted, describing the classification of “green” projects eligible for financing through “green” bonds and “green” loans. In February 2023, Kazakhstan adopted the Strategy for Achieving Carbon Neutrality of the Republic of Kazakhstan by 2060.
Kazakhstan committed to achieving (with international support) carbon neutrality in the economy by 2060. The country also set a goal to increase the share of renewable energy in the energy balance to 50% by 2050. However, both the Strategy and the NDC contain only general declarations, without specific targets that could be measured and progress assessed.
2. The absence of a phased fossil fuel phase-out strategy, despite the country’s high dependence on oil, coal, and gas.
Even during the preparation of the previous NDC, international experts noted that phasing out coal, which is the main source of greenhouse gas emissions, could allow Kazakhstan to achieve at least a 40% reduction. The share of the coal sector in employment in the country is very small — only 0.5% of all employed, as is its share in the total added value. At the same time, a significant portion of coal produced is exported to other countries, which allows finding markets for some time and gradually reducing production.
Sometimes there is an opinion that Kazakhstan’s share in global greenhouse gas emissions is very small and there is no need to take action to reduce it. However, decarbonization brings real economic and social benefits.
Decarbonization scenarios calculated in a joint project of the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan and GIZ during the preparation of the previous NDC showed that the total net benefits to society from phasing out coal could amount to up to USD 137 billion from 2021 to 2060. Even under the most conservative estimate, the avoided costs for healthcare alone would significantly exceed the losses in coal sector employment income. According to the International Energy Agency, subsidies for fossil fuels in Kazakhstan in 2019 amounted to USD 6.6 billion, including USD 2.2 billion for coal. Overall, continuing coal extraction and combustion significantly reduces overall welfare in the country. The overall benefits of phasing out coal far exceed the costs required for its replacement.
At the meeting “NDC 3.0 of the Republic of Kazakhstan: Dialogue on Climate Commitments Formation,” held on August 11–12, 2025, in Astana, the public was presented with progress in the development of NDC 3.0. Experts’ reports indicated that the energy sector accounts for 77% of all greenhouse gas emissions in the country, and 67% of all CO2 is generated from coal combustion.
This further highlights the importance of reducing coal use. A study by the reputable European research center Agora Energiewende showed that to ensure economic growth and energy security, Kazakhstan does not require the construction of new coal or gas plants. The optimal and most cost-effective scenario is large-scale construction of wind power plants.
3. The absence of a comprehensive just transition system to support workers and regions dependent on fossil fuel sectors. Measures to assess the social impact of climate policy on workers, communities, or regions dependent on fossil fuel-based industries, as well as on communities most vulnerable to climate change, are not outlined.
Kazakhstan’s long-term decarbonization efforts could disproportionately affect certain sectors and population groups if a socially inclusive strategy is not implemented. Changes in the energy structure may require retraining and creating alternative employment. Awareness of these needs led to the development of the concept of a just transition, initially promoted globally by trade unions and originally aimed at displaced workers.
Kazakhstan has many single-industry towns where the main employment and welfare of the population are tied to extractive industries. And this concerns not only industries directly related to fuel energy and fossil fuel extraction, but also all towns whose economies are linked to extraction and processing of natural resources. If Kazakhstan does not comply with the Paris Agreement requirements, the products from these towns may become uncompetitive, and the welfare of residents will be at risk. All these risks should be considered in modeling for the development of NDC 3.0.
At the same time, the concept of a just transition is currently becoming broader and requires consideration of the needs of a wider range of people, which requires greater involvement of various groups in the development of climate policy measures.
4. The contribution of land use, agriculture, and forestry to greenhouse gas emissions is not addressed in detail in NDC 2.0. They are only mentioned among the sectors for which assessments will be conducted.
Kazakhstan’s forested areas occupy 1.24 percent of the country’s total area, or 3.48 million hectares. For the purpose of implementing the NDC by 2030, among the planned measures is the increase of forested areas to 14.5 million hectares. As noted, afforestation, in addition to economic benefits and additional results in terms of climate change mitigation, will allow the government to address land erosion, increase water retention, and improve groundwater quality.
Afforestation on at least 1.5 million hectares of degraded land within the framework of the Bonn Challenge will bring significant benefits for climate change mitigation. In addition to increased carbon absorption, afforestation programs will support land restoration, transform unproductive lands into forested areas, restore damaged landscapes, and create jobs in sustainable forestry and wood processing industries.
The 2023 NDC also states that the results of climate change mitigation through forest restoration and afforestation under three different scenarios until 2030 were modeled for Kazakhstan using the Canadian forest sector carbon budget model. According to the modeling, during the first three years (after planting), each hectare of coniferous, soft-leaved, or hard-leaved trees absorbs on average 1 ton of carbon per year, which is equivalent to 3.67 tons of CO2 per hectare per year in the absence of disturbance factors. However, later this figure decreases to 0.7 tons of carbon per hectare of forest per year.
The agricultural sector, in terms of its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, is not considered in detail in the 2023 NDC, only the risks faced by agriculture are mentioned in the adaptation section.
5. The absence of gender-responsive planning and inclusive governance.
Although the 2023 NDC contains a section on gender considerations in adaptation, it only outlines vague intentions for the future: “The role of women in adapting agricultural methods to climate change, participation in decision-making, planning, and implementation of awareness-raising projects and behavioral change toward more responsible use of water and energy, understanding climate risks and other identified issues will be reflected in relevant state programs in priority areas for climate change adaptation at the national and local governance levels.”
Meanwhile, gender assessment should be conducted for all activities included in the NDC. The participation of youth in developing measures to reduce climate impact and adapt to its changes is not properly considered. After all, it is the younger generation that will implement the planned measures and experience the growing negative consequences of climate change.
Overall, in NDC 2.0 public engagement is envisaged only in a passive form. It plans only education and awareness-raising among Kazakhstan’s population by fostering an environmental culture. The promotion of green policies and measures is through publications, increasing awareness via targeted information to the business community, and explaining the rules and principles of the green economy. Meanwhile, inclusiveness in governance implies taking into account the needs of the process participants, in the case of the NDC, this refers to different population groups.
Recommendations for updating the NDC
In mid-February 2025, the Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources of the Republic of Kazakhstan held a meeting with representatives of international organizations and the expert community to discuss key aspects of the formation of NDC 3.0. Representatives of NDCP, UNDP, FAO, UNICEF, UNITAR, GIZ, and CCAC participated, promising expert and technical support in the development of the document.
It was stated that international experience would be taken into account in developing the updated NDC, and the development of NDC 3.0 would be based on the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System) model, allowing a detailed analysis of low-carbon development scenarios for Kazakhstan and the formulation of the most effective greenhouse gas emission reduction measures.
Civil society considers it necessary to include in the document currently being developed as NDC 3.0 the following:
- A transparent, scientifically-based approach to emission reduction, including an interim target for 2035 and a clear link to the 1.5-degree trajectory and Global Stocktake assessments.
- A phased fossil fuel phase-out strategy with clear sectoral deadlines and investment plans in renewable energy. This roadmap should also consider the socio-economic consequences of the transition and avoid dependence on fossil fuel infrastructure.
- Measures ensuring a just transition, including the interests of various groups: worker retraining, social protection, regional support programs, and civil society participation, particularly of vulnerable groups, women, and youth.
- Separate and transparent accounting for the land use, agriculture, and forestry sectors. Specific targets for sustainable agricultural development. Align land and forest use policies with national biodiversity and adaptation goals.
Why a strong NDC is important for Kazakhstan
A strong NDC will reduce environmental pressure. Phasing out coal provides significant public benefits through reduced air pollution in cities, thereby reducing diseases and healthcare costs, while also increasing labor productivity and reducing work time losses.
Clear NDC targets, clearly demonstrating how the country strives to contribute to the global goal of maintaining the 1.5 °C temperature trajectory, will also bring tangible benefits at the international level, enhancing the competitiveness of Kazakh products, attracting international financial support, and investment in clean production.
